Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 27.077937 28.854619 30.761342 32.972806 35.483974 38.267491 41.615662
2025-11-16 23.902467 26.211151 28.823982 32.041920 35.959989 40.662457 46.877216
2025-11-23 22.658666 25.334800 28.476970 32.518599 37.707620 44.347758 53.869326
2025-11-30 21.479084 24.358839 27.833482 32.453658 38.640716 46.992004 59.865086
2025-12-07 20.409193 23.398371 27.082034 32.111085 39.082112 48.929161 65.128055
2025-12-14 19.087165 22.023952 25.688974 30.773400 37.973805 48.444790 66.434464
2025-12-21 18.500330 21.534354 25.386668 30.851372 38.829271 50.933601 73.151859
2025-12-28 18.083794 21.229978 25.293172 31.187223 40.064798 54.154848 82.011112
2026-01-04 17.351433 20.471398 24.540943 30.522896 39.704509 54.691110 85.789937
2026-01-11 17.116968 20.354604 24.645314 31.089423 41.294244 58.765500 98.314695
2026-01-18 16.802713 20.111480 24.554865 31.350701 42.407229 62.163472 110.764770
2026-01-25 16.329141 19.629762 24.101722 31.026214 42.504382 63.646782 119.016059
2026-02-01 15.586933 18.822544 23.247338 30.188800 41.927969 64.285782 127.239704
2026-02-08 14.889977 18.058559 22.430351 29.375686 41.354544 64.948985 136.723871
2026-02-15 14.610189 17.853647 22.399453 29.786041 42.992003 70.716605 169.762179
2026-02-22 14.229264 17.484935 22.101068 29.730162 43.752180 74.739519 202.799268
2026-03-01 13.818721 17.054005 21.683054 29.436928 44.010170 77.628608 236.821825
2026-03-08 13.221320 16.332615 20.793384 28.288211 42.446976 75.439401 237.087364
2026-03-15 12.965682 16.094092 20.625238 28.355323 43.342297 80.132319 298.761943
2026-03-22 12.780382 15.948648 20.589643 28.644174 44.732729 86.775876 417.023316
2026-03-29 12.407685 15.514926 20.086215 28.072469 44.212124 87.471582 475.788441
2026-04-05 12.296161 15.461343 20.173754 28.560097 46.079943 96.683768 849.389474
2026-04-12 12.132993 15.323918 20.120212 28.784647 47.390458 104.764378 1853.627757